HIV Care continuum Outcomes: Can Ethiopia Meet the UNAIDS 90- 90-90 Targets?

BACKGROUND: Ethiopia has pledged to the UNAIDS 90-90-90 framework. However, the achievements of these UNAIDS targets are not assessed in Southwest Ethiopia. Using HIV care and treatment outcomes as surrogate markers, we assessed all targets.METHODS: Complex surrogate makers were used to assess the HIV care continuum outcomes using antiretroviral therapy data in Jimma University Teaching Hospital. Early HIV diagnosis was a surrogate marker to measure the first 90. Numbers of people on HIV treatment and who have good adherence were used to measure the second 90. To measure the third 90, we used immunological success that was measured using numbers of CD4 counts, clinical success using WHO clinical stages and treatment success using immunological and clinical successes.RESULTS: In total, 8172 patients were enrolled for HIV care from June 2003 to March 2015. For the diagnosis target, the prevalence of early HIV diagnosis among patients on ART was 35% (43% among children and 33.3% among adults). For the treatment target, 5299(65%) received ART of which 1154(22%) patients lost to follow-up or defaulted from ART treatment, and 1015(19%) patients on treatment transferred out to other sites. In addition, 17% had fair or good adherence. Finally, 81% had immunological success, 80% had clinical success and 66% treatment success.CONCLUSIONS: The study revealed that Southwest Ethiopia achieved 35%, 65% and 66% of the first, second and third UNAIDS targets, a very far performance from achieving the target. These highlight further rigorous interventions to improve outcome of HIV continuum of care

Health workforce acquisition, retention and turnover in southwest Ethiopian health institutions

Background: Skill mix of health professionals, staff acquisition and turnover rate are among the major challenges for the delivery of quality health care. This study  assessed the health workforce acquisition, retention, turnover rate and their  intention to leave.Methods: A cross-sectional survey with quantitative and qualitative data collection methods was conducted in Jimma Zone health institutions. Five years records (September 2009-August 2014) were reviewed to determine the turnover rate. A total of 367 health professionals were included for the quantitative study. For the qualitaive study, all available and relevant health managers and administrative records in the selected health institutions were included. Descriptive and inferential analyses were done for the quantitative study. Thematic analysis was used for the qualitative component.Results: A total of 367 health workers were incorporated for the quantitative study making a response rate of 87%. The overall health workers’ satisfaction was neutral (mean 3.3). In five years period, 45.9% staffs had left for a cause; 59.4% health professionals intended to leave. Being male (AOR =1.6, 95%CI: 1.001-2.5), not knowing their overall satisfaction (AOR=0.5, 95%CI: 0.2-0.8), below mean score of institutional satisfaction (AOR =1.7, 95%CI: 1.06-2.7) and below mean score of organizational satisfaction (AOR=1.8, 95%CI: 1.08-2.8) were independent predictors for intention to leave.Conclusions: The overall health workers’ satisfaction was marginally neutral. A considerable number of staffs had left, and more than half of the current staffs had an intention to leave. Thus, it is recommended that the responsible authorities should design strategies to improve the situation.Keywords: Health workforce, acquisition, retention, turnover, Ethiopi

Health Care Seeking Behavior in Southwest Ethiopia

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Time to Attrition and Factors Associated among Adults enrolled in Pre-Anti- Retroviral Therapy Care in Tepi General Hospital, Ethiopia

Pre-antiretroviral therapy (Pre-ART) patient attrition is a growing concern in Ethiopia. Nevertheless, there is little information that assesses the magnitude and its related factors. This study assessed time to attrition and factors associated among adults enrolled in pre ART care at Tepi General Hospital in South West Ethiopia. Records of adult pre-ART patients enrolled at Tepi General Hospital from October 2010 to September 2013 were reviewed to find factors linked with time to attrition. We defined time to attrition as the period a patient was enrolled in pre-ART service till attrition. We Used Kaplan Meir curve to estimate survival time, and log-rank test to compare the time to attrition among different categories of patients. We used Cox hazard model to assess factors related with time to attrition. We followed 652 pre-ART patients for 337.6 person years of follow-up from start up to pre-ART outcomes. Of these, 179 patients were lost to follow up and 37 patients died, contributing to an overall attrition of 33.13%. During the early six months the attrition rate was 89.8%. Not starting cotrimoxazole prophylaxis (AHR=1.51, 95% CI, 1.02-2.25), being co-infected with tuberculosis (TB) (AHR=2.16, 95%CI, 1.35-3.45), living further than 10 km away from the hospital (AHR=1.44, 95%CI, 1.07-2.0), and not disclosed status of HIV(AHR=3.04) were factors significantly associated with time to attrition. Pre-ART patient attrition rate was high among clients not using cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, TB/HIV co-infected, living > 10 km from a health care facility and with undisclosed HIV status. Close follow-up of clients during the early months' follow-up period is greatly recommended

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa:A scoping review of preparedness, impact and response

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems in both developed and developing nations alike. Africa has one of the weakest health systems globally, but there is limited evidence on how the region is prepared for, impacted by and responded to the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL to search peer-reviewed articles and Google, Google Scholar and preprint sites for grey literature. The scoping review captured studies on either preparedness or impacts or responses associated with COVID-19 or covering one or more of the three topics and guided by Arksey and O’Malley’s methodological framework. The extracted information was documented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension checklist for scoping reviews. Finally, the resulting data were thematically analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-two eligible studies, of which 6 reported on health system preparedness, 19 described the impacts of COVID-19 on access to general and essential health services and 7 focused on responses taken by the healthcare systems were included. The main setbacks in health system preparation included lack of available health services needed for the pandemic, inadequate resources and equipment, and limited testing ability and surge capacity for COVID-19. Reduced flow of patients and missing scheduled appointments were among the most common impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health system responses identified in this review included the availability of telephone consultations, re-purposing of available services and establishment of isolation centres, and provisions of COVID-19 guidelines in some settings. CONCLUSIONS: The health systems in Africa were inadequately prepared for the pandemic, and its impact was substantial. Responses were slow and did not match the magnitude of the problem. Interventions that will improve and strengthen health system resilience and financing through local, national and global engagement should be prioritised

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa : a scoping review of preparedness, impact and response

Funding Information: Funding GAT was supported with funding from the Australia National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Investigator Grant #1195716.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern 3 Mediterranean countries, 1990–2015: findings from the Global 4 Burden of Disease 2015 study

Objectives We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015. Methods Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight. Results In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4–2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2–0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6–36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3–114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6–3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7–6.6) in 2015. Conclusions HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance,and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services

Global, regional, and national sex-specific burden and control of the HIV epidemic, 1990-2019, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2019

Background: The sustainable development goals (SDGs) aim to end HIV/AIDS as a public health threat by 2030. Understanding the current state of the HIV epidemic and its change over time is essential to this effort. This study assesses the current sex-specific HIV burden in 204 countries and territories and measures progress in the control of the epidemic. Methods: To estimate age-specific and sex-specific trends in 48 of 204 countries, we extended the Estimation and Projection Package Age-Sex Model to also implement the spectrum paediatric model. We used this model in cases where age and sex specific HIV-seroprevalence surveys and antenatal care-clinic sentinel surveillance data were available. For the remaining 156 of 204 locations, we developed a cohort-incidence bias adjustment to derive incidence as a function of cause-of-death data from vital registration systems. The incidence was input to a custom Spectrum model. To assess progress, we measured the percentage change in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 (threshold >75% decline), the ratio of incident cases to number of people living with HIV (incidence-to-prevalence ratio threshold <0·03), and the ratio of incident cases to deaths (incidence-to-mortality ratio threshold <1·0). Findings: In 2019, there were 36·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 35·1–38·9) people living with HIV worldwide. There were 0·84 males (95% UI 0·78–0·91) per female living with HIV in 2019, 0·99 male infections (0·91–1·10) for every female infection, and 1·02 male deaths (0·95–1·10) per female death. Global progress in incident cases and deaths between 2010 and 2019 was driven by sub-Saharan Africa (with a 28·52% decrease in incident cases, 95% UI 19·58–35·43, and a 39·66% decrease in deaths, 36·49–42·36). Elsewhere, the incidence remained stable or increased, whereas deaths generally decreased. In 2019, the global incidence-to-prevalence ratio was 0·05 (95% UI 0·05–0·06) and the global incidence-to-mortality ratio was 1·94 (1·76–2·12). No regions met suggested thresholds for progress. Interpretation: Sub-Saharan Africa had both the highest HIV burden and the greatest progress between 1990 and 2019. The number of incident cases and deaths in males and females approached parity in 2019, although there remained more females with HIV than males with HIV. Globally, the HIV epidemic is far from the UNAIDS benchmarks on progress metrics. Funding: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, the National Institute of Mental Health of the US National Institutes of Health (NIH), and the National Institute on Aging of the NIH

Adolescent transport and unintentional injuries: a systematic analysis using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Globally, transport and unintentional injuries persist as leading preventable causes of mortality and morbidity for adolescents. We sought to report comprehensive trends in injury-related mortality and morbidity for adolescents aged 10–24 years during the past three decades. Methods: Using the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2019 Study, we analysed mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributed to transport and unintentional injuries for adolescents in 204 countries. Burden is reported in absolute numbers and age-standardised rates per 100 000 population by sex, age group (10–14, 15–19, and 20–24 years), and sociodemographic index (SDI) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We report percentage changes in deaths and DALYs between 1990 and 2019. Findings: In 2019, 369 061 deaths (of which 214 337 [58%] were transport related) and 31·1 million DALYs (of which 16·2 million [52%] were transport related) among adolescents aged 10–24 years were caused by transport and unintentional injuries combined. If compared with other causes, transport and unintentional injuries combined accounted for 25% of deaths and 14% of DALYs in 2019, and showed little improvement from 1990 when such injuries accounted for 26% of adolescent deaths and 17% of adolescent DALYs. Throughout adolescence, transport and unintentional injury fatality rates increased by age group. The unintentional injury burden was higher among males than females for all injury types, except for injuries related to fire, heat, and hot substances, or to adverse effects of medical treatment. From 1990 to 2019, global mortality rates declined by 34·4% (from 17·5 to 11·5 per 100 000) for transport injuries, and by 47·7% (from 15·9 to 8·3 per 100 000) for unintentional injuries. However, in low-SDI nations the absolute number of deaths increased (by 80·5% to 42 774 for transport injuries and by 39·4% to 31 961 for unintentional injuries). In the high-SDI quintile in 2010–19, the rate per 100 000 of transport injury DALYs was reduced by 16·7%, from 838 in 2010 to 699 in 2019. This was a substantially slower pace of reduction compared with the 48·5% reduction between 1990 and 2010, from 1626 per 100 000 in 1990 to 838 per 100 000 in 2010. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of unintentional injury DALYs per 100 000 also remained largely unchanged in high-SDI countries (555 in 2010 vs 554 in 2019; 0·2% reduction). The number and rate of adolescent deaths and DALYs owing to environmental heat and cold exposure increased for the high-SDI quintile during 2010–19. Interpretation: As other causes of mortality are addressed, inadequate progress in reducing transport and unintentional injury mortality as a proportion of adolescent deaths becomes apparent. The relative shift in the burden of injury from high-SDI countries to low and low–middle-SDI countries necessitates focused action, including global donor, government, and industry investment in injury prevention. The persisting burden of DALYs related to transport and unintentional injuries indicates a need to prioritise innovative measures for the primary prevention of adolescent injury. Funding: Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 328 diseases and injuries for 195 countries, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

As mortality rates decline, life expectancy increases, and populations age, non-fatal outcomes of diseases and injuries are becoming a larger component of the global burden of disease. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of prevalence, incidence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) for 328 causes in 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016